Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91e6…60f6 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$268 (-8%) realized −$366 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$271
7 days−$358
14 days−$365
30 days−$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$141
crypto 9% +$34
sports 7% −$160
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -25.1% -32.2% 26% 26% -24.5%
≤30d 40 -23.2% -30.5% 30% 30% -21.2%
≤90d 40 -23.2% -30.5% 30% 30% -21.2%
all 40 -23.2% -30.5% 30% 30% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 30% -21.2%
10% -37.2% 30% -28.7%
15% -43.2% 25% -35.6%
20% -48.8% 22% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$44 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$503
Realized−$366
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage9d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 86¢ $405 $503 +$98 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $112 −$67 -60%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$97 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $518 −$414 -80%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $187 +$131 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$33 +33%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$7 -22%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $181 −$40 -22%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $15 +$85 +550%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $31 −$26 -84%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $211 +$131 +62%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $56 −$35 -62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $44 −$43 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $185 +$63 +34%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$33 +41%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +238%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $107 +$99 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 −$97 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $179 −$177 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $177 +$101 +57%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $110 +$67 +61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $369 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $45 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $108 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 6h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $104 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $318 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $319 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $200 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $38 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $149 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $24 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $141 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $181 25h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 30h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 30h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $135 38h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? AND Exact Score: United States 2 BUY 3¢ $5 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $76 42h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.04 · official $503.04 (match) · 86 history records