Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:00:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
91 0x91e7…8c47 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,274 (+9%) realized +$1,188 · open +$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate75%27W / 9L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$980
7 days+$2,828
14 days+$2,790
30 days+$3,161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$39
other 43% +$2,384
world 8% +$320
politics 3% +$201
crypto 2% +$262
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +48.3% +34.2% 92% 92% +38.3%
≤30d 15 +42.4% +28.9% 87% 87% +34.6%
≤90d 30 +15.0% +4.1% 70% 70% +13.0%
all 36 +17.4% +6.2% 75% 69% +13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.2% 69% +13.2%
10% -4.0% 61% +2.4%
15% -13.2% 53% -7.5%
20% -21.7% 42% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$222 vs −$319 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$386
Realized+$1,188
Unrealized+$86
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses27 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage160d
Avg bet$366
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals No 74¢ 96¢ $300 $386 +$86 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,014 +$866 +85%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 +$114 +38%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026- Jun 21 $460 +$265 +58%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $909 +$415 +46%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $406 −$400 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $203 +$251 +124%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 +$8 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $654 +$501 +77%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 AND Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $405 +$262 +65%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $301 +$36 +12%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $343 +$177 +52%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $305 +$334 +109%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$262 +86%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $529 +$371 +70%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) May 24 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 23 $30 +$11 +36%
Will SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? May 23 $50 +$7 +14%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 May 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $369 +$215 +58%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 23 $250 −$246 -98%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 23 $93 −$67 -72%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $201 +$59 +30%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $504 +$689 +137%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $153 +$142 +92%
WTT - Men's Singles: China vs France May 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? May 09 $590 +$410 +70%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 24 $396 +$201 +51%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 09 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $228 +$72 +32%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $364 +$36 +10%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $753 +$250 +33%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $9 +$5 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 56¢ $101 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 56¢ $51 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 76¢ $201 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 71¢ $101 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 56¢ $101 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 56¢ $51 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 55¢ $51 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 55¢ $51 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 55¢ $51 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 56¢ $203 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 55¢ $101 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 53¢ $1,014 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 72¢ $303 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 45¢ $407 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $909 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026- BUY 63¢ $460 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $713 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 49¢ $406 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $203 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $58 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $50 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 AND Brazil leading at halftime? BUY 60¢ $405 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 56¢ $94 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 56¢ $559 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 89¢ $301 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 36¢ $1 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 65¢ $342 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $305 6d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $304 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $304 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.58 · official $1,135.58 · 146 history records