Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:20:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

91 0x91e8…4b88 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$315 (+8%) realized +$438 · open −$123

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%8W / 13L

Drawdown62%max

Avg bet$106per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit27%portable

Net worth$1,621now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days−$33

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-9.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	3	-18.0%	-25.8%	33%	33%	-29.1%
≤90d	8	-31.6%	-38.1%	38%	38%	-23.5%
all	21	-0.1%	-9.6%	38%	38%	-0.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.6%	38%	-0.9%
10%	-18.2%	38%	-10.4%
15%	-26.1%	29%	-19.1%
20%	-33.4%	24%	-27.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 70% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +35% → late -32% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$52 vs −$46 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage

Net worth$1,621

Realized+$438

Unrealized−$123

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses8 / 13

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions16

Markets (closed)21 / 37

History coverage599d

Avg bet$106

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown62%

Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 16 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$316	$312	−$4 (-1%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$236	$277	+$41 (+17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	13¢	$129	$197	+$68 (+53%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	4¢	$85	$175	+$90 (+105%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$98	$101	+$3 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	13¢	$75	$84	+$9 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	20¢	$67	$79	+$12 (+18%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$338	$77	−$261 (-77%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$77	$64	−$13 (-17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$95	$63	−$32 (-33%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$50	$45	−$5 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$46	$42	−$4 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$27	$32	+$5 (+18%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$40	$29	−$11 (-27%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-5%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$35	$15	−$20 (-57%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 06	$50	+$16	+32%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$42	−$8	-19%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$61	−$41	-67%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 06	$56	−$55	-99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 06	$73	+$18	+24%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Apr 28	$27	−$27	-99%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)	Apr 15	$17	−$34	-200%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?	Apr 15	$70	+$54	+77%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?	Dec 01	$109	−$109	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Nov 23	$40	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Nov 23	$40	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Nov 17	$40	$0	+0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025?	Nov 09	$7	+$4	+63%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?	Nov 09	$31	+$17	+53%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 01	$5	+$5	+108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Nov 01	$30	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Nov 01	$100	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Oct 26	$20	$0	+0%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Oct 26	$40	$0	+0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$780	+$290	+37%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024?	Nov 02	$10	+$9	+90%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$31	1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$55	6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	13¢	$66	6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	13¢	$51	7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$50	8h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$20	22h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$45	28h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	32h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$11	33h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	33h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$13	33h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	33h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$41	33h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	33h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$172	35h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	35h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$123	44h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$57	2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$27	3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$97	3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$12	3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$64	3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$108	3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$91	3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$60	6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$89	6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$40	7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$29	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,621.03 · official $1,624.44 (match) · 247 history records