Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
91 0x91e8…f1ab sports 313 markets active 0h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$35,034 (-9%) realized −$35,039 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%158W / 154L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,211per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2,129est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,890
7 days−$4,451
14 days−$21,374
30 days−$24,239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$40,432
world 23% −$1,233
other 2% +$1,498
crypto 0% −$441
politics 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -41.2% -46.8% 33% 17% -42.5%
≤30d 90 -26.1% -33.1% 48% 37% -36.2%
≤90d 219 -10.1% -18.6% 54% 44% -19.5%
all 312 -10.7% -19.2% 51% 41% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 41% -18.0%
10% -26.9% 29% -25.8%
15% -34.0% 21% -33.0%
20% -40.4% 12% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$229 vs −$499 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized−$35,039
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses158 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$2,129
Open positions1
Markets (closed)312 / 313
History coverage591d
Avg bet$1,211
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs FOKUS 83¢ 84¢ $300 $305 +$5 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $30 +$11 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $297 +$16 +5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $2,804 +$155 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $2,256 −$2,216 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $2,908 −$593 -20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $3,378 −$1,222 -36%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $1,206 +$936 +78%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $993 −$977 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $787 −$109 -14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $238 −$236 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $250 −$12 -5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $632 −$204 -32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $420 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $22,744 −$10,147 -45%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $260 +$323 +124%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,088 −$83 -8%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,426 +$230 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Jun 07 $279 −$277 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 07 $1,985 −$1,967 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3,284 −$2,260 -69%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,949 −$939 -48%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $987 −$716 -73%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,921 −$917 -48%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,549 +$43 +3%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $343 −$339 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $154 −$150 -97%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $694 −$186 -27%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $1,205 +$402 +33%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $905 +$179 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,521 −$62 -4%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 05 $733 +$114 +16%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $306 −$214 -70%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1,216 −$344 -28%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $542 −$386 -71%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $307 +$182 +59%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $445 +$39 +9%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $969 +$296 +30%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1,032 −$65 -6%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $923 +$111 +12%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $905 +$17 +2%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $546 +$359 +66%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $1,790 −$451 -25%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $262 −$259 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $72 −$11 -15%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $25 +$23 +89%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $1,002 +$219 +22%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $502 +$130 +26%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $96 −$95 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 83¢ $302 4m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo SELL TDK 100¢ $41 17m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 73¢ $30 57m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $313 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 95¢ $297 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 95¢ $2,704 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 85¢ $100 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 40¢ $2,256 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 54¢ $2,256 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $2,908 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $1,238 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 45¢ $1,237 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $2,140 24h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2,142 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 41¢ $3 41h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 43¢ $990 41h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 76¢ $678 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 87¢ $787 6d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 6d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $297 6d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $395 6d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $308 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 68¢ $238 6d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) SELL Vitality 50¢ $238 6d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 51¢ $250 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $251 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $209 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 21¢ $207 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 41¢ $424 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 99¢ $420 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.47 · official $294.63 · 790 history records