Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:52:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91e8…24f8 crypto 320 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$529 (+3%) realized +$562 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%128W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days−$86
14 days−$521
30 days−$471
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$559
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +83.1% +65.6% 22% 22% -19.7%
≤30d 236 +5.3% -4.7% 37% 36% -12.3%
≤90d 318 +3.1% -6.7% 40% 38% -12.2%
all 318 +3.1% -6.7% 40% 38% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 38% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 35% -20.6%
15% -23.8% 32% -28.3%
20% -31.3% 29% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$50 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$562
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses128 / 190
Open positions2
Markets (closed)318 / 320
History coverage44d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $33 $1 −$32 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 165 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$140 +747%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $43 −$31 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$43 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$156 +304%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $76 −$16 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$56 +268%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$10 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$38 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$30 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$53 +336%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $106 −$102 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $95 −$90 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $86 −$23 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$105 +1977%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $216 −$207 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $216 −$207 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 07 $106 −$101 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $216 −$50 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $92 −$88 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $32 +$339 +1061%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $90 −$86 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 07 $93 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $113 −$108 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 07 $78 +$167 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 07 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 07 $135 +$186 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $105 +$150 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 05 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 05 $79 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 01 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $13 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 01 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 01 $3 +$6 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $16 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $16 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $20 5m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $44 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $159 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $19 9m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 13m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $12 13m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 19m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $12 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $12 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $13 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $20 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $7 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.78 · official $57.34 · 1120 history records