Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
91 0x91ea…3d79 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$906 (+17%) realized +$956 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$423
7 days+$824
14 days+$661
30 days+$661
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$552
sports 34% +$82
crypto 7% +$281
world 2% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +26.8% +14.7% 55% 55% +21.4%
≤30d 38 +6.4% -3.8% 47% 47% +3.1%
≤90d 40 +9.6% -0.8% 50% 50% +5.3%
all 41 +10.8% +0.3% 51% 51% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 51% +6.0%
10% -9.3% 51% -4.1%
15% -18.1% 51% -13.4%
20% -26.1% 49% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$99 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$956
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage104d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 42¢ 42¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Ghana 39¢ 38¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Uzbekistan 36¢ 1¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $102 +$155 +152%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 +$221 +216%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 +$145 +48%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$107 +70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $464 +$300 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$134 +262%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$76 +149%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$58 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$180 +89%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$89 +250%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 +$174 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $423 +$240 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$111 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $56 −$55 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $202 +$137 +67%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 07 $101 +$68 +67%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 07 $101 +$77 +76%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Mar 12 $100 +$59 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $102 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 39¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 36¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 57¢ $101 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $15 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $102 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $102 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 61¢ $101 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $152 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 38¢ $61 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $464 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $102 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $102 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 27¢ $51 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 94¢ $127 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $102 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 37¢ $51 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 52¢ $203 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $102 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $102 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $102 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $102 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.31 · official $150.17 (match) · 65 history records