Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x91eb…143e other 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,543 (+3%) realized +$2,544 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate95%130W / 7L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$598per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$2,597
tech 12% +$32
finance 11% +$25
sports 4% −$141
world 3% +$4
politics 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 26 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 95 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 0% -9.4%
all 137 +0.0% -9.5% 95% 3% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -6.8%
10% -18.1% 2% -15.7%
15% -26.1% 1% -23.9%
20% -33.3% 1% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$38 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×12.13 per $1 lost it wins $12.13
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized+$2,544
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses130 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)137 / 140
History coverage202d
Avg bet$598
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $119 $118 −$1 (-0%)
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $141 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $113 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $220 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $3,000 +$3 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 03 $3,000 +$3 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $146 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $156 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $64 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $358 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $414 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 29 $1,200 +$1 +0%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $425 Week of May 18 2026? May 24 $175 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $561 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $430 Week of May 18 2026? May 24 $57 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 18 2026? May 24 $166 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $60-$70 on the final day of trading of th May 24 $144 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of May 24 $169 $0 +0%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $72.50 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $467 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of May 22 $76 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $449 +$1 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $93 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $387 +$8 +2%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of May 22 $99 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 18 above $205? May 22 $176 +$11 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $891 +$40 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 18 2026? May 21 $1,001 +$15 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $800 −$27 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $1,500 −$9 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $500 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $244 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $1,500 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $190? May 16 $145 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 11 2026? May 16 $378 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,900 +$2 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $783 −$42 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $2,001 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 14 $170 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 14 $2,000 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 07 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $119 1h
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $141 2d
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 3d
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $75 3d
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 3d
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 3d
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $113 5d
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 5d
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 5d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $220 14d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,000 18d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $3,000 23d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,200 27d
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $999 27d
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $414 28d
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 28d
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 28d
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $72.50 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 29d
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 29d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of SELL No 100¢ $76 29d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 100¢ $450 29d
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $99 29d
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 29d
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $93 29d
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $72.50 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 29d
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $72.50 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.39 · official $219.39 (match) · 378 history records