Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:29:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91f4…d093 weather 749 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (110 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized +$13 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%284W / 402L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day110.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$254
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% −$66
sports 4% +$33
other 2% −$13
politics 2% −$13
world 1% −$8
crypto 1% −$7
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (110 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 375 -28.3% -35.2% 38% 35% -25.3%
≤30d 686 -10.4% -18.9% 41% 39% -10.7%
≤90d 686 -10.4% -18.9% 41% 39% -10.7%
all 686 -10.4% -18.9% 41% 39% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 39% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 33% -19.2%
15% -33.8% 25% -27.0%
20% -40.3% 21% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses284 / 402
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions63
Markets (closed)686 / 749
History coverage14d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day110.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 63 History 686 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? No 56¢ 97¢ $5 $8 +$4 (+73%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Yes 41¢ 62¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 85¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? No 70¢ 71¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? No 68¢ 73¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? No 86¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? No 77¢ 81¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? No 82¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? No 70¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? No 59¢ 58¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? No 77¢ 73¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? No 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 66¢ 65¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? No 73¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? No 85¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 81¢ 70¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? No 85¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 85¢ 69¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? No 84¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 66¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? No 64¢ 51¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? No 54¢ 38¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? No 69¢ 34¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 180 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $4 +$25 +591%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +298%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $7 44m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 49m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 98¢ $29 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.28 · official $142.40 (match) · 1767 history records