Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91f8…d951 weather 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,993 (-17%) realized −$2,087 · open +$94
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$397per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,089now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,746
7 days−$2,109
14 days−$1,978
30 days−$1,932
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$1,329
weather 29% −$620
sports 5% +$120
other 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -27.6% -34.5% 38% 23% -32.9%
≤30d 25 -18.8% -26.5% 48% 32% -25.9%
≤90d 25 -18.8% -26.5% 48% 32% -25.9%
all 25 -18.8% -26.5% 48% 32% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 32% -25.9%
10% -33.6% 24% -33.0%
15% -40.0% 24% -39.5%
20% -45.9% 12% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$196 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1,089
Realized−$2,087
Unrealized+$94
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 30
History coverage22d
Avg bet$397
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $956 $1,048 +$93 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $16 $23 +$7 (+42%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $16 $11 −$6 (-34%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 74¢ 74¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 28 $3,682 −$1,474 -40%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $101 +$18 +18%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 26 $503 +$106 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $403 −$400 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $300 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,351 −$338 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $18 −$17 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $41 +$67 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $301 +$23 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -95%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $1,400 −$47 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $29 −$28 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $1,200 −$169 -14%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $800 +$340 +42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 +$11 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $307 +$20 +7%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 11 $68 +$1 +1%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 10 $14 +$6 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 89¢ $157 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 92¢ $201 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $126 5h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $7 15h
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes $200 18h
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes $30 18h
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes $22 24h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $119 27h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $177 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $284 38h
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 100¢ $609 39h
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 82¢ $503 39h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 84¢ $202 40h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 82¢ $202 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $300 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 27¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? SELL No $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 95¢ $946 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 76¢ $202 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 72¢ $203 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $220 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $200 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $200 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $301 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY Yes $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,089.45 · official $1,089.45 (match) · 106 history records