Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:20:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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91 0x91f8…71e0 crypto 1798 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$225 (-2%) realized −$210 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%1019W / 768L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$37
14 days−$166
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$259
crypto 31% −$68
weather 0% +$4
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +1.2% -8.4% 39% 39% -15.0%
≤30d 175 -5.1% -14.2% 36% 35% -13.1%
≤90d 694 -3.0% -12.2% 44% 44% -12.1%
all 1787 -2.1% -11.4% 57% 57% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 57% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 56% -20.1%
15% -27.6% 35% -27.8%
20% -34.7% 25% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$210
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses1019 / 768
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1787 / 1798
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1787 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Walczaki 34¢ 34¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A AlQadsiah Esports 44¢ 48¢ $30 $33 +$2 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 43¢ 44¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Phantom 29¢ 38¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+33%)
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs GenOne 30¢ 30¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Pixel Lumina 27¢ 27¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Playoffs WRAITH PCIFIC 44¢ 52¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Yes 31¢ 40¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Sebastian Ofner 45¢ 48¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yangon Galacticos 45¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $13 +$37 +291%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $36 +$54 +151%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $14 +$14 +96%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $32 +$32 +101%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $19 +$19 +100%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $14 +$10 +71%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $14 +$10 +71%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $13 +$33 +250%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $29 +$30 +101%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $12 +$36 +291%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 +$24 +276%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $24 +$32 +134%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $18 +$34 +188%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $17 +$35 +206%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Ding Cuts (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Grou Jun 08 $51 −$14 -28%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $12 −$2 -14%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $23 +$33 +146%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs BALU - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $26 12m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 34¢ $30 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche BUY Sebastian Ofner 45¢ $8 5h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY GenOne 30¢ $15 6h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY Pixel Lumina 27¢ $13 6h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 45¢ $28 7h
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Phantom 29¢ $14 8h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 31¢ $3 20h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 44¢ $31 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 35¢ $19 34h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl BUY WRAITH PCIFIC 44¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 30¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 39¢ $36 3d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $19 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $32 3d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 35¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $14 3d
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY ARETE 28¢ $8 3d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $10 3d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $22 3d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 49¢ $19 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $13 4d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 40¢ $20 4d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 49¢ $32 4d
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche BUY Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 44¢ $18 4d
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 48¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 44¢ $3 5d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 37¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.54 · official $247.54 (match) · 3500 history records