Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
91 0x91f8…8948 politics 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,025per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$36
economics 7% −$1
other 3% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 26 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 26 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$943) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage70d
Avg bet$1,025
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,792 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $915 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $916 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $921 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,857 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,869 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 12 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $930 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $943 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $943 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $946 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $947 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $47 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $905 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $906 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $906 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $908 9d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $907 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $909 11d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $908 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $909 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $909 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $910 16d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $910 20d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $911 21d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $912 22d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $913 23d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $913 24d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $914 25d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $913 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $915 27d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $914 29d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $916 30d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $920 31d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $921 32d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $920 33d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $921 34d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $922 35d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $923 35d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $923 37d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $925 37d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $924 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.70 · official $46.70 (match) · 106 history records