Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:52:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91f9…3c43 crypto 1748 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$756 (-2%) realized −$753 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate90%1570W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$72
14 days−$711
30 days−$751
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$741
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -13.6% -21.9% 78% 23% -17.8%
≤30d 1482 -1.6% -11.0% 89% 33% -11.3%
≤90d 1753 -1.4% -10.8% 90% 31% -11.3%
all 1753 -1.4% -10.8% 90% 31% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 31% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 8% -19.8%
15% -27.1% 2% -27.6%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$27 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$753
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1570 / 183
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1753 / 1748
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1753 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 94¢ 69¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.52 · official $19.83 (match) · 3500 history records