Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
91 0x91fb…a67c crypto 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$985 (+5%) realized +$1,095 · open −$110
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate46%108W / 125L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,938now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$144
7 days+$144
14 days+$146
30 days+$375
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$787
sports 17% −$99
crypto 16% +$102
other 13% +$296
finance 4% +$41
politics 1% −$126
tech 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +9.2% -1.2% 100% 0% -1.2%
≤30d 8 +0.8% -8.8% 88% 25% -2.6%
≤90d 173 -35.2% -41.4% 31% 19% -6.6%
all 233 -15.7% -23.7% 46% 34% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 34% -3.9%
10% -31.0% 27% -13.1%
15% -37.7% 23% -21.5%
20% -43.8% 20% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$1,938
Realized+$1,095
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses108 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions3
Markets (closed)233 / 236
History coverage124d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 80¢ $1,669 $1,670 +$1 (+0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 68¢ 46¢ $356 $243 −$112 (-32%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 95¢ $24 $25 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 17 $1,568 +$144 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $600 +$2 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $533 −$8 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $874 +$101 +12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $1,278 +$83 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $306 +$22 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $289 +$31 +10%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 02 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 20 May 02 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Solana reach $100 in April? May 02 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 02 $190 +$10 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 02 $104 +$96 +92%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 02 $408 +$54 +13%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 02 $175 +$65 +37%
Will Boston Celtics advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 N May 01 $186 −$186 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $88 +$96 +109%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 25 $65 +$4 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 25 $468 +$72 +15%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? Apr 21 $148 +$2 +2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $442 +$42 +10%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 15 $2 +$8 +525%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 14? Apr 15 $80 +$20 +25%
LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 13 $3 +$7 +270%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy (BO5) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Santos Laguna win on 2026-04-11? Apr 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-11? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Basement Bobs (BO3) - European Pro League Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-04-11? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 13 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: baigiau vs Bonk (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group A Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs Formulation Gaming (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST G Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - European Pro League Series Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs ZETA DIVISION - Map 2 Winner Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin Vacherot Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: ghosts vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - VCL Türkiye: Birlik Grou Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 13 $3 +$4 +126%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-11? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - DreamLeague China Clos Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-04-11? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports (BO5) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $800 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $820 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1,711 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $642 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $600 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 25¢ $40 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 25¢ $100 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 25¢ $100 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $101 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,937.82 · official $1,937.82 (match) · 850 history records