Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x91fb…3f0b other 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$15
14 days+$6
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$24
politics 26% −$11
sports 20% −$11
crypto 10% −$9
culture 4% −$5
economics 4% −$2
world 3% +$42
finance 3% −$3
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 4% -9.0%
≤30d 63 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 2% -9.6%
≤90d 114 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 1% -9.6%
all 134 -0.4% -9.8% 15% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 114
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage103d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $387 −$2 -1%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $43 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 19 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $256 −$2 -1%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $101 −$3 -3%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $40 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $251 −$3 -1%
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $54 −$2 -3%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $204 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$4 -4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $102 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $209 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $85 −$2 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $42 −$1 -2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $155 +$43 +28%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $169 −$2 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $154 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $45 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 11 $49 −$1 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $150 −$2 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $45 −$1 -2%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 10 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $150 −$1 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $29 −$2 -5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $189 $0 +0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $54 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $101 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $51 −$2 -3%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $55 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $159 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $46 $0 +1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $149 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $36 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $36 9h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 93¢ $43 10h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 93¢ $43 18h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 90¢ $65 19h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 91¢ $67 26h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $51 26h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $51 32h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $38 33h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $38 37h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $62 37h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $62 43h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $43 44h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $45 2d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $39 2d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $42 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $43 3d
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 95¢ $52 3d
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 3d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $45 3d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $45 3d
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $50 3d
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $51 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $53 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.27 · official $44.27 (match) · 503 history records