Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:17:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x91fe…cfd7 sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 502d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$388 (-0%) realized −$388 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%48W / 30L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,368per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$743est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$274
14 days+$4,733
30 days+$4,663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$3,977
world 14% +$393
other 5% +$1,412
economics 2% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -7.6% -16.4% 60% 50% -11.7%
≤30d 28 +7.1% -3.1% 68% 54% +0.0%
≤90d 73 -10.0% -18.5% 59% 49% -12.6%
all 78 -8.5% -17.2% 62% 50% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 50% -11.3%
10% -25.1% 27% -19.8%
15% -32.4% 18% -27.6%
20% -39.0% 10% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,495) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$523 vs −$907 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

502d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$388
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses48 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$743
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage502d
Avg bet$1,368
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2,008 −$39 -2%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 27 $1,268 −$1,250 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,383 +$895 +65%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 26 $902 +$52 +6%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 26 $1,507 +$258 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,258 +$324 +26%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1,007 −$267 -26%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $503 +$145 +29%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,003 +$107 +11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $513 −$500 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $1,735 +$3,743 +216%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,271 −$1,250 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $2,027 +$1,606 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $690 −$677 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $604 −$426 -70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $501 +$42 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $707 +$56 +8%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $443 +$64 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $518 +$126 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $503 +$106 +21%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $504 +$209 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3,277 +$1,516 +46%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 14 $14,950 +$393 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $994 −$980 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 +$252 +246%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $996 +$201 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,492 +$457 +18%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $897 −$884 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5) May 17 $1,743 −$1,727 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $578 −$568 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $554 +$25 +4%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 17 $500 +$54 +11%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $994 −$981 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 15 $2,483 +$3,762 +152%
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) May 13 $497 −$492 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $996 −$45 -4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $238 −$233 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner May 12 $348 +$85 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 11 $348 −$341 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $498 +$185 +37%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $1,991 +$513 +26%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner May 10 $867 −$853 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $9,167 −$9,115 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $1,191 +$147 +12%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 09 $999 +$191 +19%
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) May 03 $994 −$985 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $300 +$15 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $498 +$371 +74%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $305 −$300 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $1,969 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $2,008 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 53¢ $1,268 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,383 24h
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $954 24h
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY Norway 94¢ $902 24h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 85¢ $1,507 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,258 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL No 57¢ $740 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $1,007 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $649 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 77¢ $503 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,110 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 90¢ $1,003 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 45¢ $508 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 11¢ $513 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $5,478 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $1,735 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 45¢ $1,271 8d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $3,633 9d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $2,027 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $690 9d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 28¢ $178 9d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $604 10d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $543 10d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $23 10d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $739 10d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 92¢ $501 10d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $707 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $506 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records