Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

91
0x91ff…8f40
world · 71 markets active 3h ago
5.5score
+$886 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$927 · open −$41
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$5,756
Realized+$927
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses35 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)59 / 71
Avg bet$401
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 12 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$98
14 days+$216
30 days+$518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $2,783 $3,005 +$223 (+8%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 59¢ 55¢ $800 $743 −$57 (-7%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? No 81¢ 78¢ $744 $721 −$23 (-3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 71¢ 67¢ $500 $472 −$28 (-6%)
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? No 93¢ 92¢ $290 $286 −$4 (-1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 76¢ 90¢ $200 $239 +$39 (+19%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 57¢ 38¢ $185 $125 −$61 (-33%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 12¢ 10¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 49¢ 20¢ $100 $40 −$60 (-60%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 58¢ 22¢ $91 $35 −$56 (-61%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 43¢ 46¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026? No 25¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Microsoft be the most valuable company on October 31? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Grokipedia released by October 31? No 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Apple be the most valuable company on October 31? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $153 $0 −$153 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 16¢ 0¢ $124 $0 −$124 (-100%)
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $166 $0 −$166 (-100%)
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? No 43¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
OpenAI browser by October 31? No 57¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $602 +$61 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $84 +$2 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $100 +$12 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $100 +$23 +23%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,301 +$128 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $1,000 +$70 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 27 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $1,000 +$8 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $3,700 +$221 +6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 03 $3,311 +$442 +13%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 22 $2,444 +$71 +3%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026? Mar 26 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026? Mar 25 $143 −$8 -6%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $225 −$127 -56%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $1,222 +$21 +2%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026? Mar 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? Mar 22 $8 $0 +6%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026? Mar 22 $90 +$2 +2%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026? Mar 21 $60 +$30 +50%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Mar 21 $1 $0 +33%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 19 $569 +$16 +3%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 16 $1 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 24 $100 −$38 -38%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by February 28, 2026? Feb 23 $203 +$84 +41%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $31 −$5 -17%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of January? Jan 31 $206 +$3 +2%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January? Jan 30 $197 −$166 -84%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 19 $215 −$8 -4%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 17 $20 −$11 -57%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $111 +$14 +13%
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by December 31? Jan 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 17 $200 −$59 -30%
xAI IPO in 2025? Nov 18 $152 +$2 +1%
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30? Nov 05 $108 +$318 +294%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19? Oct 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Oct 19 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by October 31? Oct 18 $100 −$52 -52%
Grokipedia released by October 31? Oct 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13? Oct 13 $284 +$55 +19%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12? Oct 13 $135 +$38 +28%
Will Trump visit the Western Wall by October 31? Oct 13 $254 +$6 +2%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12? Oct 12 $289 +$41 +14%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 11 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 11? Oct 11 $125 +$46 +37%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Oct 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Microsoft be the most valuable company on October 31? Oct 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 53% +$619
other 35% +$673
tech 9% −$554
politics 1% +$306
economics 1% −$147
crypto 0% −$7
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 81¢ $246 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 81¢ $504 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $663 2h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $86 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 15h
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? BUY No 93¢ $291 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 55¢ $102 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $123 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $200 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 79¢ $100 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 89¢ $100 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $500 6d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 8d
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30 11d
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 11d
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 12¢ $52 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $400 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $372 12d
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $40 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $411 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $773 15d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $500 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $2,012 15d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $439 15d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $131 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 15d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $235 15d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $251 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +11.8% +1.2% 100% 50% +0.5%
≤30d 11 -11.9% -20.3% 82% 18% -4.8%
≤90d 24 -8.5% -17.2% 75% 21% -4.7%
all 59 -14.8% -22.9% 59% 27% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 27% -5.8%
10% -30.3% 14% -14.8%
15% -37.0% 8% -23.0%
20% -43.2% 3% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,756.36 · official $5,756.36 (match) · 243 history records