Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

91 0x91ff…ecb6 crypto 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip

Net edge-60%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate45%10W / 12L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$949per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$2,067now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$13

7 days+$5

14 days−$12

30 days−$5

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-58.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-33.2%	-39.6%	67%	0%	-9.5%
≤30d	21	-52.3%	-56.8%	48%	0%	-9.5%
≤90d	22	-54.5%	-58.8%	45%	0%	-9.6%
all	22	-54.5%	-58.8%	45%	0%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-58.8%	0%	-9.6%
10%	-62.7%	0%	-18.2%
15%	-66.3%	0%	-26.1%
20%	-69.6%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 29% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -54% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,059) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -45% → late -64% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.81 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage

Net worth$2,067

Realized−$7

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses10 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage32d

Avg bet$949

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18?	No	100¢	100¢	$2,061	$2,062	+$1 (+0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	95¢	96¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17?	Jun 18	$2,057	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	Jun 17	$2,053	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16?	Jun 17	$2,051	+$2	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 16?	Jun 16	$2,047	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15?	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12?	Jun 13	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 10?	Jun 11	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 8?	Jun 09	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 7?	Jun 07	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 4?	Jun 05	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3?	Jun 04	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29?	May 30	$2,089	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 29?	May 29	$2,085	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 28?	May 29	$2,080	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28?	May 28	$2,077	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27?	May 28	$2,071	+$6	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 27?	May 27	$2,059	+$6	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 25?	May 26	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 23?	May 24	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 21?	May 22	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 19?	May 20	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 17?	May 17	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18?	BUY No	100¢	$2,061	1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17?	BUY No	100¢	$2,057	12h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,053	30h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16?	BUY No	100¢	$2,051	35h
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 16?	BUY No	100¢	$2,047	2d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	5d
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 10?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 8?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	9d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 7?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 4?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	14d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	95¢	$5	18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29?	BUY No	100¢	$2,089	19d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 29?	BUY No	100¢	$2,085	20d
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 28?	BUY No	100¢	$2,080	20d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28?	BUY No	100¢	$2,077	21d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27?	BUY No	100¢	$2,071	21d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 27?	BUY No	100¢	$2,059	22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 25?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	23d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 23?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	25d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 21?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	27d
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 19?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 17?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	32d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,067.31 · official $2,067.31 (match) · 37 history records