Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:50:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
92 0x9200…83b5 world 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$2,268 (+269%) realized +$2,464 · open −$196
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +160% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +136% what you keep after slip
Net edge+136%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$324
economics 26% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+135.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +160.4% +135.6% 100% 100% +72.1%
≤30d 2 +160.4% +135.6% 100% 100% +72.1%
≤90d 2 +160.4% +135.6% 100% 100% +72.1%
all 2 +160.4% +135.6% 100% 100% +72.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +135.6% 100% +72.1%
10% +113.0% 100% +55.6%
15% +92.4% 50% +40.6%
20% +73.6% 50% +26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +90% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +160% · $-wt +90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$168 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$2,464
Unrealized−$196
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage7d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $200 $25 −$175 (-88%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-25%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 13 $290 +$98 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $83 +$238 +287%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.13 · official $64.13 (match) · 11 history records