Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:55:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9200…eaaa crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$761 (-31%) realized −$762 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%27W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$330
14 days−$617
30 days−$757
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$357
crypto 20% −$132
sports 13% −$41
world 10% −$239
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -56.0% -60.2% 33% 33% -35.4%
≤30d 30 -55.4% -59.6% 30% 27% -47.1%
≤90d 68 -32.0% -38.4% 40% 38% -42.1%
all 86 -27.1% -34.1% 31% 30% -41.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 30% -41.4%
10% -40.4% 26% -47.0%
15% -46.2% 17% -52.2%
20% -51.4% 15% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized−$762
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses27 / 59
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)86 / 90
History coverage118d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 95¢ 94¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? No 78¢ 78¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 81¢ 80¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $30 $32 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $48 +$10 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $121 −$120 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $14 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $12 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $23 −$22 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $12 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$9 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $112 −$112 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $80 +$17 +21%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $26 +$1 +5%
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $239 −$239 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $34 +$40 +117%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $76 +$24 +32%
Exact Score: China PR 2 - 1 Thailand? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: China PR 0 - 2 Thailand? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 20 $21 +$14 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 19 $23 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 19 $23 +$13 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 19 $22 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 15 $14 +$16 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 14 $15 +$35 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 30 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 30 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 30 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 30 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 30 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 30 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 30 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 81¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 78¢ $60 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $48 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 72¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $69 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $121 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $23 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 85¢ $112 5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $80 6d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY No 95¢ $26 8d
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $239 11d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 59¢ $39 12d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 59¢ $22 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 44¢ $38 12d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $41 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.28 · official $241.28 (match) · 162 history records