Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
92 0x9200…1b9b crypto 155 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$660 (+6%) realized +$577 · open +$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate61%92W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$489
14 days+$757
30 days+$660
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$449
other 29% +$127
crypto 16% +$171
finance 9% −$198
culture 2% −$219
weather 0% $0
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -3.5% -12.7% 61% 57% -0.8%
≤30d 62 +3.2% -6.7% 63% 56% -0.9%
≤90d 100 -3.0% -12.2% 60% 45% +1.4%
all 150 -4.0% -13.1% 61% 42% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 42% -7.4%
10% -21.4% 33% -16.3%
15% -29.0% 23% -24.4%
20% -36.0% 13% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$40 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$679
Realized+$577
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses92 / 58
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions5
Markets (closed)150 / 155
History coverage142d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $200 $259 +$59 (+30%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $96 $117 +$21 (+22%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 57¢ 60¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) DR Congo 86¢ 84¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $202 −$202 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $405 +$250 +62%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $101 +$29 +29%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $46 +$19 +41%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $160 −$115 -72%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $101 −$76 -75%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $101 −$35 -34%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $201 +$58 +29%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $202 +$137 +67%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Uruguay to win the second half? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $272 +$110 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $303 +$8 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $66 +$100 +151%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $202 −$134 -66%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$33 +64%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $171 +$45 +26%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 21 $151 +$31 +20%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $101 −$46 -46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $100 +$18 +18%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$39 +39%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $101 +$29 +29%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$89 +88%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? Jun 20 $77 +$22 +29%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $101 +$70 +69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$38 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$70 +69%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $112 +$88 +78%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $95 −$73 -76%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 +$31 +47%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $48 +$17 +34%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$44 +43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$58 +59%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $260 +$16 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 −$1 -15%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 +$47 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$120 +238%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 26m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $202 2h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $655 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $130 6h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $65 19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $46 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 27¢ $45 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $160 22h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 86¢ $100 22h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 22h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 61¢ $405 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 18¢ $25 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 51¢ $66 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 57¢ $101 25h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 25h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 25h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 25h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $259 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $383 29h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $272 30h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $202 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $311 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 44h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 39¢ $66 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $679.12 · official $679.12 (match) · 511 history records