Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9200…04cc crypto 139 markets active 2d ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-6%) realized −$26 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%57W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$33
other 8% −$6
economics 1% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -56.3% -60.5% 14% 14% -47.3%
≤30d 14 -56.3% -60.5% 14% 14% -47.3%
≤90d 138 -12.7% -21.0% 41% 37% -18.2%
all 138 -12.7% -21.0% 41% 37% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 37% -18.2%
10% -28.5% 36% -26.0%
15% -35.4% 36% -33.2%
20% -41.8% 33% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses57 / 81
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage75d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -81%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? (April 12) Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 07 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 06 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 06 $2 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 06 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 05 $3 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 05 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 05 $3 +$3 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 05 $3 −$2 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 36h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 36h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $6 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 7d
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? (April 12) BUY No 2¢ $1 72d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 2¢ $2 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 73d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $1 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.58 · official $2.58 (match) · 262 history records