Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:56:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9204…b4f5 crypto 886 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,945 (-20%) realized −$6,977 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%423W / 456L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day59.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$383
other 1% −$169
finance 0% +$13
world 0% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 429 -5.7% -14.7% 47% 47% -7.7%
≤90d 879 -4.9% -13.9% 48% 47% -11.2%
all 879 -4.9% -13.9% 48% 47% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 47% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 47% -19.7%
15% -29.7% 47% -27.5%
20% -36.6% 46% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$36 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized−$6,977
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses423 / 456
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)879 / 886
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day59.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 879 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 17¢ 78¢ $30 $137 +$107 (+356%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 28¢ 1¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 229 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $155 −$154 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 04 $153 −$148 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $60 +$59 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 04 $158 −$153 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 04 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 04 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 04 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 04 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 04 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 04 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 04 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 04 $50 +$49 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 04 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 04 $53 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 04 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 04 $100 +$77 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 04 $51 +$49 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 04 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 04 $48 +$51 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 04 $51 +$48 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 04 $51 +$48 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 04 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 04 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 04 $291 −$291 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 04 $221 −$217 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 04 $111 −$109 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 04 $247 +$189 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 04 $47 −$46 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $33 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $11 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $155 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $153 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $119 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $158 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $60 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.04 · official $251.18 (match) · 3500 history records