Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:09:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
92 0x9208…08c5 sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$84 (-4%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.8% -12.1% 50% 50% -10.3%
≤30d 8 -2.8% -12.1% 50% 50% -10.3%
≤90d 8 -2.8% -12.1% 50% 50% -10.3%
all 8 -2.8% -12.1% 50% 50% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 50% -10.3%
10% -20.5% 50% -18.8%
15% -28.2% 25% -26.7%
20% -35.2% 25% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$125 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage7d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $382 +$98 +26%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera Jun 24 $340 −$340 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 23 $104 −$104 -100%
Piracicaba: Santiago De La Fuente vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 23 $553 −$27 -5%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $320 +$313 +98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $83 +$47 +57%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini Jun 23 $125 −$30 -24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $100 +$26 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records