Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x9209…1522 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate94%16W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$231
7 days−$231
14 days−$67
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$214
sports 43% −$216
world 8% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -12.1% -20.4% 83% 17% -22.7%
≤30d 17 +4.9% -5.1% 94% 53% -9.6%
≤90d 17 +4.9% -5.1% 94% 53% -9.6%
all 17 +4.9% -5.1% 94% 53% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 53% -9.6%
10% -14.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -22.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -30.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$299 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses16 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage15d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 90¢ 90¢ $290 $292 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $280 +$11 +4%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 21 $274 +$6 +2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $259 +$15 +6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $249 +$10 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $223 +$27 +12%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 19 $299 −$299 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $273 +$26 +10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $246 +$27 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $212 +$34 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $181 +$31 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $160 +$21 +13%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $135 +$25 +18%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $112 +$24 +21%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $110 +$2 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $83 +$18 +21%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $71 +$12 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $291 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $280 10h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Japan 98¢ $274 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $259 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $249 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $223 46h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 81¢ $299 8d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $273 9d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $246 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 86¢ $212 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 85¢ $181 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 88¢ $160 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $160 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 84¢ $135 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 82¢ $112 14d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $112 14d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $110 14d
Will England win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 99¢ $110 14d
Will England win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 15d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 15d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 82¢ $83 15d
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $83 15d
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $71 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.87 · official $291.87 (match) · 35 history records