Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:12:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9209…b4d5 sports 1077 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$617 (+2%) realized +$714 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%537W / 510L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day52.8pace
Fees−$270est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,520now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$1,503
other 30% +$123
world 3% +$724
politics 2% −$52
tech 2% −$219
finance 0% +$6
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -7.0% -15.8% 47% 41% -39.2%
≤30d 393 -1.1% -10.5% 51% 46% -20.7%
≤90d 1047 +1.8% -7.9% 51% 47% -14.8%
all 1047 +1.8% -7.9% 51% 47% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 47% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 42% -22.9%
15% -24.7% 37% -30.4%
20% -32.1% 32% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$26 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$1,520
Realized+$714
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses537 / 510
Est. fees paid−$270
Open positions54
Markets (closed)1047 / 1077
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day52.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 1047 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 63¢ 88¢ $132 $183 +$51 (+39%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 60¢ $175 $177 +$3 (+1%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 50¢ $155 $145 −$10 (-6%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 62¢ $153 $139 −$14 (-9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 76¢ $87 $84 −$4 (-4%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Over 50¢ 40¢ $69 $56 −$13 (-19%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Dembele 51¢ 40¢ $72 $56 −$17 (-23%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 64¢ 32¢ $106 $53 −$53 (-50%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 97¢ 99¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+3%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 80¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+42%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 10¢ 13¢ $25 $33 +$7 (+29%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 46¢ 46¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 13¢ 36¢ $10 $28 +$18 (+174%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 74¢ 98¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+32%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 42¢ $14 $22 +$8 (+60%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ 48¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 74¢ 98¢ $14 $18 +$5 (+32%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 87¢ 98¢ $15 $16 +$2 (+13%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 89¢ 100¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 54¢ 60¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+12%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ 60¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-11%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 38¢ 44¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 444 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +221%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-12.5) Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $92 −$92 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Meavedron vs BRUTE (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Jun 18 $92 −$92 -100%
Shymkent: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Gijs Brouwer Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Trump post "POTUS" this week on Truth Social? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Team Solid (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $86 +$12 +14%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 +$9 +42%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $86 +$211 +246%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $215 −$211 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $262 −$65 -25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$10 +325%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) Jun 17 $11 +$8 +70%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $23 +$22 +95%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $14 +$6 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $8 +$8 +102%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +10%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $108 −$45 -42%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $101 +$63 +63%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $7 +$1 +14%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $14 +$41 +286%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $200 +$46 +23%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 +$6 +109%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $9 +$6 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $169 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 97¢ $38 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $296 1h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $2 1h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $2 1h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $2 1h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $2 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $4 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 77¢ $2 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 74¢ $19 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $86 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 59¢ $71 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 58¢ $13 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 58¢ $4 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 58¢ $66 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 58¢ $3 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 36¢ $67 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 38¢ $98 2h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $10 3h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $4 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $21 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $2 3h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $5 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 44¢ $10 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 32¢ $3 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $11 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $9 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $11 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $9 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,520.09 · official $1,519.61 (match) · 3500 history records