Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x920a…29e0 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$258 (-6%) realized −$275 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -34.0% -40.3% 39% 39% -17.7%
≤30d 18 -34.0% -40.3% 39% 39% -17.7%
≤90d 18 -34.0% -40.3% 39% 39% -17.7%
all 18 -34.0% -40.3% 39% 39% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.3% 39% -17.7%
10% -46.0% 39% -25.6%
15% -51.2% 22% -32.8%
20% -56.0% 17% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$96 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,608
Realized−$275
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions7
Markets (closed)18 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 66¢ 68¢ $1,013 $1,034 +$22 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Gentle Mates 61¢ 64¢ $254 $265 +$11 (+4%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Under 92¢ 92¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Power Rangers 63¢ 62¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Walczaki 34¢ 34¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B K27 79¢ 66¢ $52 $44 −$8 (-15%)
Overwatch: Lazuli vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Lazuli 21¢ 13¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-39%)
Map Handicap: QE (-1.5) vs Mandatory (+1.5) Mandatory 82¢ 55¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F Jun 20 $4 +$3 +75%
Overwatch: T1 vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 19 $229 +$104 +45%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 19 $607 +$359 +59%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 19 $37 −$36 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $149 −$147 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 19 $173 +$49 +28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $138 −$135 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $353 −$349 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $375 +$127 +34%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $297 +$83 +28%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 16 $251 −$250 -100%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 16 $59 −$3 -5%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $88 +$70 +79%
ITF Sapporo: Yuna Sugiyama vs Miyu Nishiwaki Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Ashley Lahey Jun 16 $99 −$55 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 63¢ $93 1h
Map Handicap: QE (-1.5) vs Mandatory (+1.5) BUY Mandatory 82¢ $3 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $188 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $418 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $209 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $209 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 61¢ $257 3h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F BUY Hermine Esports Club 28¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European BUY NAVI Junior 33¢ $16 18h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $149 18h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 34¢ $54 19h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European BUY NAVI Junior 35¢ $13 19h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Elizara Yaneva 62¢ $607 19h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY SHISHKA 23¢ $19 19h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $111 20h
Overwatch: Lazuli vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group St BUY Lazuli 21¢ $16 20h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 79¢ $52 20h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European BUY NAVI Junior 34¢ $8 20h
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Hunter Heck 77¢ $173 23h
Overwatch: T1 vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Crazy Raccoon 68¢ $229 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 15¢ $138 39h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 62¢ $353 44h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL TDK 100¢ $502 44h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 76¢ $153 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 73¢ $222 2d
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 78¢ $297 3d
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY QoR 84¢ $251 3d
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) BUY Gentle Mates 25¢ $51 3d
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Mark Lajal 50¢ $56 3d
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet BUY Mark Lajal 51¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,608.24 · official $1,608.24 (match) · 45 history records