Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:05:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x920b…5d17 crypto 1771 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,218 (+5%) realized +$3,218 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%1155W / 893L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 100d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,488
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 329 -89.2% -90.2% 8% 8% -76.5%
≤30d 504 -55.6% -59.8% 34% 34% -36.3%
≤90d 1624 -16.2% -24.1% 55% 54% -15.6%
all 2048 -12.8% -21.1% 56% 56% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 56% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 50% -22.7%
15% -35.6% 28% -30.2%
20% -41.9% 16% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$26 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,218
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses1155 / 893
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2048 / 1771
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2048 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 2PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 6PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 1AM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4AM ET Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 4PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 10PM ET Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 10PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4AM ET Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 11AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1AM ET Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $72 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $27 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $88 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $99 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $93 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $7 44h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $16 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $98 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $55 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $43 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $47 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $45 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $95 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $98 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $90 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $101 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $16 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records