Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:04:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

92
0x920b…9889
crypto · 22 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$237 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,805 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,805
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses5 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage323d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,042
7 days−$2,042
14 days−$2,042
30 days−$2,042
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $340 $0 −$340 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $379 $0 −$379 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $345 $0 −$345 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $231 $0 −$231 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $282 $0 −$282 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin close above $120K on July 31? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $138 $0 −$138 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $231 $0 −$231 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $399 −$379 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $252 −$240 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $194 +$47 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $242 −$231 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $101 −$95 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $85 −$81 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $283 −$283 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $191 +$190 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $298 +$194 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $190 +$191 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$97 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $363 −$345 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $295 −$282 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $358 −$340 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $242 −$231 -95%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President Oct 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Bitcoin close above $120K on July 31? Jul 31 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Solana reach $210 in July? Jul 30 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference? Jul 30 $150 +$787 +524%
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference? Jul 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% −$2,492
economics 6% +$687
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $179 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $220 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $48 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $47 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $157 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $242 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $237 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $194 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $101 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $85 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $191 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $283 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $473 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $298 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $362 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $295 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $315 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $235 1h
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President BUY Yes 4¢ $101 239d
Will Bitcoin close above $120K on July 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $38 317d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+111.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +182.7% +155.8% 25% 25% -79.1%
≤30d 16 +182.7% +155.8% 25% 25% -79.1%
≤90d 16 +182.7% +155.8% 25% 25% -79.1%
all 22 +134.1% +111.8% 23% 23% -60.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +111.8% 23% -60.4%
10% +91.5% 23% -64.2%
15% +73.0% 18% -67.7%
20% +56.1% 18% -70.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records