Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x920f…10d5 crypto 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$97 (+2%) realized +$255 · open −$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%26W / 28L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$293
14 days+$293
30 days+$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$486
other 10% −$381
crypto 5% +$22
tech 4% +$55
world 1% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -20.6% -28.2% 42% 39% -4.9%
≤30d 33 -20.6% -28.2% 42% 39% -4.9%
≤90d 54 -8.5% -17.2% 48% 43% -4.4%
all 54 -8.5% -17.2% 48% 43% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 43% -4.4%
10% -25.1% 37% -13.6%
15% -32.4% 30% -21.9%
20% -39.0% 22% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$71 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$255
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses26 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions4
Markets (closed)54 / 58
History coverage76d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 4¢ 4¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $158 $0 −$158 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $223 +$248 +111%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $202 +$135 +67%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $42 −$41 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$31 +31%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $303 −$77 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $128 −$128 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $709 −$709 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$171 +84%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 +$564 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $506 +$371 +73%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $506 +$288 +57%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 +$109 +213%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $101 +$38 +37%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $732 +$92 +13%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $204 −$185 -91%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $100 +$9 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $51 +$8 +16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $520 +$131 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 09 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 31 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 31 $10 +$12 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 31 $21 −$19 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 31 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 31 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 31 $1 +$2 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 31 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 31 $12 +$28 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 31 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 31 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 31 $55 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $412 21m
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $1 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $40 28m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 59m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $338 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.60 · official $41.60 (match) · 188 history records