Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:03:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
92 0x9214…ddbf sports 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$721 (-1%) realized −$721 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%106W / 102L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$815est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,288
7 days−$7,173
14 days−$3,126
30 days−$2,486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$2,607
crypto 8% −$1,434
other 6% +$1,720
world 0% −$3
weather 0% −$3
politics 0% +$2
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -6.9% -15.7% 56% 38% -26.0%
≤30d 169 -7.1% -16.0% 51% 44% -12.6%
≤90d 208 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 45% -12.4%
all 208 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 45% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 45% -12.4%
10% -21.7% 36% -20.7%
15% -29.3% 28% -28.4%
20% -36.2% 18% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$162 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$721
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses106 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$815
Open positions0
Markets (closed)208 / 208
History coverage50d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 208 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$29 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $258 −$100 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $157 −$103 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $193 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $202 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $410 −$126 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $612 −$143 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $719 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $517 −$396 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $304 −$24 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $203 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $204 +$43 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$9 -58%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $608 −$596 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 −$48 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $305 +$266 +87%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $272 +$179 +66%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $279 −$17 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $66 +$34 +51%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $163 +$98 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $447 −$146 -33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $118 +$74 +63%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 +$57 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $209 −$148 -71%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $135 +$74 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $651 −$237 -36%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $128 +$4 +3%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $81 +$66 +81%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $332 −$141 -42%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,546 −$1,537 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $7,478 −$7,451 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $790 +$196 +25%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $981 +$380 +39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,698 +$1,809 +106%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $2,576 +$2,448 +95%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $5,338 −$178 -3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,516 −$1,493 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5,202 +$240 +5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1,999 −$573 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $17 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $79 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $51 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $53 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $173 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $67 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $37 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1002 history records