Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:47:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9216…66a2 world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-2%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%13W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% $0
other 22% −$22
politics 13% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.4% -10.8% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 21 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 54 -2.6% -11.9% 24% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -11.2%
10% -20.3% 0% -19.7%
15% -28.0% 0% -27.4%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses13 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage268d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $97 +$2 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $53 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $14 −$1 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $47 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $4 $0 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Nov 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Nov 04 $21 $0 +2%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $8 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 02 $1 $0 -6%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $3 $0 -8%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $47 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $47 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $13 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $15 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $8 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $34 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $43 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $35 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $13 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $48 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $7 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $39 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 192 history records