Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
92 0x9219…d304 weather 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,067 (+4%) realized +$1,631 · open −$564
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%50W / 64L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$6,184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,172
7 days−$860
14 days−$833
30 days+$3,273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$3,306
sports 34% −$1,908
world 3% −$676
crypto 2% +$426
weather 2% −$67
politics 1% −$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +5.9% -4.2% 52% 48% -17.6%
≤30d 27 +11.5% +0.9% 56% 52% +12.1%
≤90d 28 +8.0% -2.2% 54% 50% +6.7%
all 114 -17.2% -25.0% 44% 35% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 35% -3.1%
10% -32.2% 29% -12.4%
15% -38.8% 26% -20.8%
20% -44.8% 24% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$119 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$6,184
Realized+$1,631
Unrealized−$564
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses50 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions17
Markets (closed)114 / 131
History coverage151d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $2,634 $2,274 −$359 (-14%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1,088 $1,078 −$9 (-1%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $310 $517 +$207 (+67%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 66¢ $371 $466 +$94 (+25%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $403 −$97 (-19%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 32¢ 32¢ $320 $315 −$5 (-2%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $216 $290 +$74 (+35%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $504 $252 −$252 (-50%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $240 $242 +$2 (+1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $101 $116 +$15 (+15%)
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $79 $65 −$14 (-18%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $78 $37 −$41 (-53%)
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $103 $28 −$75 (-73%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $105 $22 −$82 (-79%)
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $31 $20 −$12 (-37%)
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $2 −$7 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $101 +$14 +14%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $299 +$201 +67%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $571 +$1,029 +180%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $338 −$3 -1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $188 −$183 -97%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $253 −$101 -40%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,023 +$262 +26%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 +$64 +185%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$22 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $262 −$260 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,398 −$1,378 -98%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,225 +$116 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,425 −$1,400 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $507 +$444 +88%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $614 −$520 -85%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 14 $2 $0 -21%
Will Switzerland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $14 −$11 -82%
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $134 +$155 +116%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $517 +$483 +93%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 12 $512 +$188 +37%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $102 +$98 +97%
Will the Green Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 20 Jun 10 $149 −$149 -100%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $122 +$78 +64%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $3,649 +$4,106 +112%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 08 $800 −$676 -85%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 50°F or higher on February Feb 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on February Feb 02 $20 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on February 2? Feb 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 38-39°F on February Feb 02 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on February Feb 02 $8 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on Februa Feb 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 1? Feb 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 1? Feb 02 $11 +$7 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 35°F or below on February 1 Feb 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on Februa Feb 01 $17 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 34-35°F on January 3 Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on January 30? Jan 31 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 30? Jan 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on Januar Jan 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on January 31? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on January 30 Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on January 31? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -12°C on January 30? Jan 30 $5 +$4 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 44-45°F on January Jan 30 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 30? Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on January 30? Jan 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $352 41m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $376 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $327 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,468 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $244 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $61 4h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $40 5h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 7h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 8h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 8h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $51 8h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $23 9h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 9h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 13h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $335 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 17h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 18h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) SELL Norway 12¢ $152 18h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 18h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $357 19h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $253 20h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $214 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $299 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $603 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $24 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $400 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $56 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,183.58 · official $6,183.36 (match) · 579 history records