Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
92 0x9219…027c sports 1177 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,809 (+2%) realized +$2,805 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%1143W / 28L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day68.9pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$284
7 days+$932
14 days+$1,897
30 days+$1,546
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,668
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 2% -7.5%
≤30d 745 +1.2% -8.4% 99% 2% -8.5%
≤90d 1171 +2.0% -7.7% 98% 2% -8.6%
all 1171 +2.0% -7.7% 98% 2% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 2% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 1% -17.4%
15% -24.6% 1% -25.3%
20% -32.0% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$65 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$441
Realized+$2,805
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1143 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1171 / 1177
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$134
Trades / day68.9
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner YFP Gaming 98¢ 100¢ $139 $141 +$2 (+2%)
Map Handicap: SaD (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) M80 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra - Map 2 Winner Fuego 99¢ 100¢ $75 $75 +$1 (+1%)
Map Handicap: YFT (-1.5) vs NRG Academy (+1.5) NRG Academy 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Map Handicap: BBB (-1.5) vs Fuego (+1.5) Fuego 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne Jun 18 $91 +$3 +4%
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $656 +$120 +18%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 1 Winne Jun 18 $19 $0 +1%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs OXEN (+1.5) Jun 18 $157 +$93 +59%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $762 +$14 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Map Handicap: Leo (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5) Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Pl Jun 18 $170 +$2 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $769 +$8 +1%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $267 +$3 +1%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: DK.C (-2.5) vs T1 Academy (+2.5) Jun 18 $55 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $769 +$8 +1%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 18 $70 +$1 +1%
Map Handicap: ROSE (-1.5) vs Dynamo Esports (+1.5) Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $335 +$5 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Map Handicap: DNM (-1.5) vs ROSE (+1.5) Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $104 +$1 +1%
Map Handicap: EVI (-1.5) vs Division One (+1.5) Jun 18 $104 +$1 +1%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $736 +$7 +1%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $769 +$7 +1%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $122 +$2 +2%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) Jun 17 $569 +$6 +1%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-2.5) vs T1 Academy (+2.5) Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Map Handicap: G1 (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $416 +$4 +1%
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Spirit Academy (+1.5) Jun 16 $769 +$7 +1%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 16 $188 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $754 +$22 +3%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $148 +$1 +1%
Game Handicap: Roar (-1.5) vs Cloud Rising (+1.5) Jun 16 $425 +$4 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: CR (-1.5) vs Roar Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $769 +$8 +1%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) Jun 15 $41 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $81 +$1 +1%
Map Handicap: G2.A (-1.5) vs SPARTA (+1.5) Jun 15 $85 +$1 +1%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra - Map 2 Winner BUY Fuego 99¢ $75 9m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $99 12m
Map Handicap: BBB (-1.5) vs Fuego (+1.5) BUY Fuego 99¢ $5 12m
Map Handicap: YFT (-1.5) vs NRG Academy (+1.5) BUY NRG Academy 99¢ $20 20m
Map Handicap: SaD (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) BUY M80 99¢ $99 1h
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear - Map 2 Winner SELL NAVI Junior 100¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear - Map 2 Winner SELL NAVI Junior 100¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear - Map 2 Winner SELL NAVI Junior 100¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear - Map 2 Winner SELL NAVI Junior 100¢ $5 1h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFP Gaming 99¢ $30 1h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFP Gaming 98¢ $109 1h
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs OXEN (+1.5) SELL OXEN 100¢ $120 2h
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear - Map 2 Winner SELL NAVI Junior 100¢ $250 2h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 99¢ $5 2h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 96¢ $91 2h
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs OXEN (+1.5) SELL OXEN 100¢ $130 2h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 1 Winne BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 99¢ $19 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner SELL BakS eSports 100¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner SELL BakS eSports 100¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner SELL BakS eSports 100¢ $136 3h
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear - Map 2 Winner SELL NAVI Junior 100¢ $50 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner SELL BakS eSports 100¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear - Map 2 Winner SELL NAVI Junior 100¢ $249 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner SELL BakS eSports 100¢ $55 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $15 3h
Map Handicap: Leo (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5) SELL 100 Thieves 100¢ $8 3h
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) SELL Leo Team 100¢ $101 3h
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Pl SELL NAVI Junior 100¢ $171 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner SELL BakS eSports 100¢ $562 3h
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear - Map 2 Winner SELL NAVI Junior 100¢ $198 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $440.55 · official $440.60 (match) · 3500 history records