Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:05:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
92 0x921c…3e13 sports 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%26W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$10
14 days−$7
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$22
sports 30% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -2.4% -11.7% 41% 41% -8.3%
≤30d 58 -7.7% -16.5% 45% 41% -8.7%
≤90d 59 -8.1% -16.9% 44% 41% -8.7%
all 59 -8.1% -16.9% 44% 41% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 41% -8.7%
10% -24.8% 36% -17.5%
15% -32.1% 31% -25.4%
20% -38.7% 24% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses26 / 33
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage40d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 44¢ 50¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$30 +291%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $124 −$5 -4%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$6 -58%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $6 +$4 +65%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 −$2 -38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$21 +70%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -96%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 +$5 +97%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $16 +$41 +250%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $22 −$21 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$22 +73%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $14 −$11 -82%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $12 −$11 -89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $9 +$35 +388%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 +$18 +55%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$11 -71%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 −$22 -66%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$10 -86%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$6 -41%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $81 +$12 +15%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$12 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 32m
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 50m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 52m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 52m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 98¢ $110 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 2h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $23 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 10h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 10h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 10h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $10 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 22h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 24h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 25h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 25h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 35h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 35h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $22 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.87 · official $6.87 (match) · 122 history records