Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:40:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9220…4dd9 other 373 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$773 (-10%) realized −$566 · open −$207
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate49%181W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$37
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$367
sports 16% −$352
politics 15% −$127
tech 10% −$107
crypto 8% +$97
world 4% −$16
finance 2% +$20
weather 1% −$16
culture 0% +$17
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +31.9% +19.3% 75% 75% +36.2%
≤30d 7 +22.9% +11.2% 57% 57% +23.4%
≤90d 8 +7.6% -2.7% 50% 50% -31.9%
all 367 -0.7% -10.2% 49% 36% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 36% -17.5%
10% -18.8% 26% -25.4%
15% -26.6% 17% -32.6%
20% -33.8% 12% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$566
Unrealized−$207
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses181 / 186
Open positions6
Markets (closed)367 / 373
History coverage592d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $14 $20 +$6 (+41%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-10%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ $100 $4 −$96 (-96%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 36¢ $113 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $20 +$28 +139%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$7 +43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 +$13 +46%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $10 $0 -3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 06 $100 −$98 -99%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 12 $30 $0 +0%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jan 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025? Jan 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jan 06 $190 −$174 -91%
Will muddyrc win the Genesis Cup? Dec 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will GenesisCupChampion win the Genesis Cup? Dec 18 $34 +$15 +45%
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? Dec 15 $65 +$5 +8%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 8-14 be between 1 Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 8-14 be between 1 Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Dec 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $21 +$4 +19%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $6 $0 -3%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $4 +$2 +54%
RCD Mallorca vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 Dec 14 $8 +$2 +28%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Dec 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 13 $8 −$3 -33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on De Dec 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Sabres vs. Canucks Dec 12 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Sydney FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 12 $5 $0 -4%
Will Auckland FC win on 2025-12-12? Dec 12 $50 +$28 +56%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 35-36°F on De Dec 12 $10 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Dec 12 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2025-12-11? Dec 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 11 $10 $0 +5%
Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $13 −$9 -72%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-11? Dec 11 $92 +$60 +65%
Will Antoine Semenyo sign with a new club during the winter transfer w Dec 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Colts sign Phillip Rivers? Dec 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. FC København: O/U 2.5 Dec 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 11 $112 −$112 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 11 $67 +$33 +49%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 10 $30 −$4 -15%
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings? Dec 10 $8 +$2 +25%
Bonnie Blue leaves Indonesia by December 31? Dec 10 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" during Pennsylvania events on Dec Dec 09 $6 +$1 +10%
NYC crime up this week? Dec 09 $15 −$15 -97%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 09 $1 $0 -11%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-08? Dec 09 $20 +$13 +67%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2025-12-08? Dec 08 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 08 $8 $0 +3%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 08 $41 +$3 +8%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Dec 08 $1 $0 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 71¢ $48 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $22 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 32h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $16 38h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $21 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $10 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $41 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 5d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $10 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 5d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $20 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $27 10d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $2 10d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $25 11d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $27 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 84¢ $17 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 63¢ $10 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 94¢ $28 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 15d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 46d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 30¢ $30 130d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 184d
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $70 188d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.53 · official $89.53 (match) · 1473 history records