Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:25:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9224…7807 crypto 674 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 125d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$492 (-6%) realized −$492 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%312W / 354L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days−$6
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$271
sports 29% −$243
other 15% +$107
world 2% −$38
weather 1% −$17
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -7.8% -16.5% 47% 40% -9.8%
≤30d 186 -6.9% -15.8% 48% 41% -8.3%
≤90d 186 -6.9% -15.8% 48% 41% -8.3%
all 666 -6.7% -15.6% 47% 37% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 37% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 26% -22.6%
15% -31.1% 18% -30.1%
20% -37.8% 11% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$492
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses312 / 354
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions8
Markets (closed)666 / 674
History coverage126d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 666 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 31¢ 33¢ $25 $26 +$2 (+6%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 73¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 28¢ 28¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 67¢ 67¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Ser Jun 21 $7 $0 -7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$16 +26%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $62 +$102 +164%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $28 −$1 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $35 −$2 -5%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $65 +$17 +27%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $21 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 $0 -4%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $25 +$10 +40%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $6 $0 -1%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $10 $0 -5%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $15 −$2 -15%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +24%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $6 −$2 -43%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$7 -65%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$5 -50%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$6 -63%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $20 −$5 -23%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $20 +$2 +8%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $16 +$5 +32%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +5%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 21 $10 +$3 +30%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$10 +100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$7 -68%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $10 −$6 -61%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $10 −$9 -89%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $10 +$1 +7%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $65 +$33 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $65 −$28 -44%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $10 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 $0 -3%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $5 $0 -6%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 20 $24 −$2 -6%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $15 +$3 +18%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $10 +$2 +18%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$5 -25%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$11 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 73¢ $10 48m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $10 53m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 28¢ $7 1h
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Ser SELL Yes 40¢ $7 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Ser BUY Yes 41¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $25 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 87¢ $9 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 81¢ $40 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $13 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 70¢ $17 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 50¢ $7 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $10 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $10 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 50¢ $7 2h
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL No 99¢ $82 2h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 97¢ $7 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 38¢ $10 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 69¢ $10 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 70¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.54 · official $77.26 (match) · 3500 history records