Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
92 0x9225…867c sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$9 (+52%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +67% what you keep after slip
Net edge+67%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$4
sports 18% +$4
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+66.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +84.3% +66.8% 100% 67% +48.7%
≤30d 3 +84.3% +66.8% 100% 67% +48.7%
≤90d 3 +84.3% +66.8% 100% 67% +48.7%
all 3 +84.3% +66.8% 100% 67% +48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +66.8% 67% +48.7%
10% +50.8% 67% +34.5%
15% +36.2% 67% +21.5%
20% +22.9% 33% +9.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +84% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +206%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 32¢ $3 43h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.11 · official $1.11 (match) · 8 history records