Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:03:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9225…00ee other 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,513 (-0%) realized −$1,518 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%27W / 141L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,842per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$13
14 days+$44
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$1,425
politics 30% −$115
sports 13% +$27
culture 4% −$15
world 3% −$11
economics 2% −$8
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% −$22
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 49 +6.3% -3.8% 14% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 135 -7.7% -16.5% 7% 4% -10.4%
all 168 +1.7% -8.0% 16% 11% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 11% -10.0%
10% -16.8% 11% -18.6%
15% -24.8% 11% -26.5%
20% -32.2% 10% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,493) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$23 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized−$1,518
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses27 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)168 / 171
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,842
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $214 $214 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $167 $168 +$0 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 62¢ $73 $78 +$4 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $264 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $4,627 −$7 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,856 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $2,242 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,500 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $7,298 −$11 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $13,491 −$14 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,979 −$2 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $1,143 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $3,899 −$5 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,362 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,828 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $86 +$41 +48%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2,835 −$3 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 06 $66 +$70 +105%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,596 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $1,331 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $8,288 −$9 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $52 +$67 +129%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $397 +$2 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $628 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,996 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $2,150 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $625 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $734 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $3,066 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $2,535 −$3 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $2,761 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $3,641 −$4 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $2,040 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,040 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,493 −$4 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $45 +$57 +129%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $56 +$59 +105%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $2,863 −$3 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $1,700 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $10,759 −$11 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $214 1h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $235 2h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $235 3h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $263 6h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $264 8h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,570 2d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,573 2d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,416 2d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,418 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,541 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,544 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,534 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,537 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,525 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,527 7d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,439 7d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,442 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,522 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,524 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,424 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,425 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,522 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,524 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $856 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $857 9d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,227 9d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,229 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $167 9d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,142 9d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,143 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.99 · official $458.99 (match) · 649 history records