Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:58:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x922b…922c other 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 227L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$31
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$40
sports 22% −$19
politics 11% +$1
culture 7% −$11
economics 6% −$3
crypto 5% −$4
world 3% −$5
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 60 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage138d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $316 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $466 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $422 −$2 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $438 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $124 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $590 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $69 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $510 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $821 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $612 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $168 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $214 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $388 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $661 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $191 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $291 −$2 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $148 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $875 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $484 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $241 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $153 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $466 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $157 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $252 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $276 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 04 $285 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $78 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $67 21m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $67 1h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 15h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $67 17h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $67 21h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $67 22h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $67 31h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $68 32h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $68 37h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $68 39h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $68 43h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $68 44h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $68 46h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $68 47h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $69 3d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $69 3d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $69 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $69 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $69 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $69 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $69 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1363 history records