Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

92
0x922e…5dd2
crypto · 61 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$98 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$86 · open +$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$234
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses34 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)54 / 61
Avg bet$12
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 7 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$40
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 60¢ $79 $78 −$1 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 85¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 52¢ 98¢ $25 $47 +$22 (+89%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 70¢ 55¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 53¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays Pittsburgh Pirates 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2 Eternal Fire 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 20? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$16 +82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $70 +$22 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $5 $0 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 29 $3 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 29 $1 $0 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 29 $3 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 28 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 28 $2 $0 +5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $31 −$30 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $35 +$8 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $60 +$48 +80%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23? May 22 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 22 $92 +$52 +57%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 22 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 22 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 21 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 21 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 21 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 21 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 21 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 21 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 21 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 56% +$114
culture 18% +$36
crypto 17% −$10
other 4% −$30
weather 4% −$5
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $60 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $10 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY No 98¢ $5 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 55¢ $20 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 54 -5.5% -14.5% 63% 44% +5.9%
≤90d 54 -5.5% -14.5% 63% 44% +5.9%
all 54 -5.5% -14.5% 63% 44% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 44% +5.9%
10% -22.7% 26% -4.2%
15% -30.1% 13% -13.5%
20% -37.0% 13% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.78 · official $233.78 (match) · 160 history records