Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:22:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
92 0x9230…7581 crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$39 (+7%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate100%15W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +7.2% -3.0% 100% 20% -2.7%
≤30d 15 +7.2% -3.0% 100% 20% -2.7%
≤90d 15 +7.2% -3.0% 100% 20% -2.7%
all 15 +7.2% -3.0% 100% 20% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 20% -2.7%
10% -12.3% 0% -12.0%
15% -20.8% 0% -20.5%
20% -28.5% 0% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses15 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $37 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $46 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $74 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $42 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $53 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $57 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records