Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
92 0x9231…d70a sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-6%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$7
finance 16% +$1
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +25.8% +13.8% 100% 100% +13.8%
≤30d 3 +52.5% +38.0% 100% 100% +28.4%
≤90d 7 +16.7% +5.5% 86% 71% -1.8%
all 9 +2.4% -7.3% 78% 56% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 56% -16.0%
10% -16.2% 56% -24.1%
15% -24.3% 22% -31.4%
20% -31.7% 11% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage93d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 +$4 +26%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $6 +$3 +46%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 18 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 22 $5 +$1 +30%
Trail Blazers vs. Nets Mar 22 $10 +$2 +24%
Pacers vs. Magic Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Wizards vs. Celtics Mar 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers Mar 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $5 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 79¢ $15 8d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $6 27d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 53¢ $5 51d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 94¢ $15 78d
Pacers vs. Magic BUY Magic 89¢ $10 85d
Spurs vs. Clippers BUY Spurs 77¢ $5 90d
Trail Blazers vs. Nets BUY Trail Blazers 81¢ $10 91d
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 88¢ $13 92d
Wizards vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 95¢ $10 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.91 · official $4.91 (match) · 17 history records