Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9231…2212 crypto 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$58,351 (-9%) realized −$57,523 · open −$828
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate64%52W / 29L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,743per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$23,793now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37,098
7 days−$37,352
14 days−$38,760
30 days−$66,424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$62,049
other 7% −$3,546
finance 2% +$47
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -6.4% -15.4% 64% 0% -30.5%
≤30d 29 -21.5% -29.0% 55% 3% -25.4%
≤90d 58 -10.1% -18.6% 62% 2% -19.3%
all 81 -7.5% -16.3% 64% 1% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 1% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 0% -26.5%
15% -31.6% 0% -33.6%
20% -38.3% 0% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$4,988) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
18.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$2,577 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$23,793
Realized−$57,523
Unrealized−$828
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses52 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)81 / 95
History coverage116d
Avg bet$6,743
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $7,700 $7,766 +$66 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 56¢ $6,158 $5,346 −$812 (-13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $3,000 $3,065 +$65 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,573 $2,577 +$4 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 44¢ 40¢ $1,804 $1,661 −$143 (-8%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,400 $1,412 +$12 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,003 +$3 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $600 $602 +$2 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? No 78¢ 78¢ $146 $147 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 69¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 26¢ $110 $83 −$27 (-24%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? No 80¢ 86¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 81¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? No 68¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 25 $10,805 −$51 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 25 $98,204 −$23,787 -24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 24 $32,123 −$13,294 -41%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 24 $2,000 +$1 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 24 $1,502 +$33 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? Jun 23 $4,399 +$10 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June? Jun 23 $1,001 +$3 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Jun 22 $2,644 +$47 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 22 $3,011 +$9 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 22 $1 $0 -28%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? Jun 22 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 21 $2,011 +$2 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Jun 19 $3,000 −$333 -11%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 18 $2,733 −$1,503 -55%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 18 $505 +$94 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $67,025 −$30,912 -46%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 03 $2,047 −$6 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 01 $100 −$15 -15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $21,868 +$1,562 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $71,738 +$3,908 +5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? May 29 $3,413 −$2,210 -65%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? May 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? May 29 $200 +$3 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in May? May 27 $792 +$8 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in May? May 27 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May? May 26 $522 +$19 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 25 $22,906 +$122 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 24 $6,915 +$56 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 17 $20,422 −$480 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 17 $18,272 −$1,581 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 08 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? May 08 $13,238 +$583 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? May 07 $6,605 −$12 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? May 04 $10,082 +$501 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 04 $1,110 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 01 $4,294 +$81 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 01 $6,632 +$339 +5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Apr 27 $200 +$5 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 17 $13,471 +$496 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 16 $4,988 +$131 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 14 $100 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Apr 14 $3,914 −$210 -5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? Apr 14 $1,000 −$62 -6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? Apr 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April? Apr 12 $1,131 +$65 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? Apr 03 $1,860 −$26 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $102 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $3,324 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $100 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $100 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $104 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $103 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $103 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 81¢ $914 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 81¢ $952 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 79¢ $31 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $200 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 80¢ $1,014 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 79¢ $101 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 78¢ $102 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 78¢ $102 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 75¢ $509 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $2,065 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 66¢ $1,267 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 67¢ $406 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,793.49 · official $23,793.51 (match) · 2223 history records