Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:49:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
92 0x9231…6871 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL +$301 (+16%) realized +$299 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$378
14 days+$612
30 days+$612
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$361
sports 8% +$136
crypto 7% +$124
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +19.9% +8.4% 38% 38% +28.0%
≤30d 39 +22.8% +11.1% 44% 44% +35.3%
≤90d 39 +22.8% +11.1% 44% 44% +35.3%
all 39 +22.8% +11.1% 44% 44% +35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.1% 44% +35.3%
10% +0.4% 41% +22.3%
15% -9.3% 41% +10.5%
20% -18.2% 36% -0.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +80% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$10 · ×4.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.71 per $1 lost it wins $3.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$299
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 46
History coverage12d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $151 −$25 -16%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$68 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$60 +59%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $51 +$133 +261%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $162 +$88 +55%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$75 +365%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 +$28 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 +$36 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $81 +$124 +152%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$26 +65%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$18 +344%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England vs. Croatia end in a Jun 17 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$14 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 23¢ $15 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A SELL 14¢ $11 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 72¢ $126 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $151 16h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 12¢ $10 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 32¢ $15 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 32¢ $20 21h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 21h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 26h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 26h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $161 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 43h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 30¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 33¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 27¢ $51 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 58¢ $405 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 64¢ $162 5d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 62¢ $81 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.39 · official $27.05 · 82 history records