Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:58:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
92 0x9232…81f3 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate83%15W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +11.4% +0.8% 83% 61% -11.8%
≤30d 18 +11.4% +0.8% 83% 61% -11.8%
≤90d 18 +11.4% +0.8% 83% 61% -11.8%
all 18 +11.4% +0.8% 83% 61% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.8% 61% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -8.9% 56% -20.2%
15% -17.7% 6% -27.9%
20% -25.7% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$63 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses15 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $177 −$175 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $127 +$43 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $81 +$17 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $61 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $46 +$16 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $24 −$4 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$11 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $177 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $13 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records