Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9233…cefc crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$50 (-5%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$65
14 days−$67
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$7
other 11% −$60
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.6% -10.1% 79% 36% -15.9%
≤30d 36 -2.6% -11.9% 53% 36% -15.6%
≤90d 36 -2.6% -11.9% 53% 36% -15.6%
all 36 -2.6% -11.9% 53% 36% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 36% -15.6%
10% -20.3% 22% -23.7%
15% -28.0% 19% -31.1%
20% -35.1% 19% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage8d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Michael Zhu 20¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $116 −$60 -52%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $50 −$21 -42%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $50 +$6 +11%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $102 +$12 +12%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $202 −$57 -28%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $150 +$5 +4%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $121 +$43 +35%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
ITF Zagreb: Rebecca Sramkova vs Iva Primorac Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
ITF Wuning: Haruka Kaji vs Ya Yi Yang Jun 10 $25 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $20 +$1 +5%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $17 +$2 +10%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 09 $15 +$3 +18%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $15 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$4 +207%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $24 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$7 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +15%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -46%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu SELL Michael Zhu 21¢ $51 1h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu BUY Michael Zhu 20¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $0 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $56 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $116 19h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola SELL Luca Nardi 51¢ $0 22h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola SELL Luca Nardi 52¢ $29 22h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova SELL Marie Bouzkova 96¢ $56 23h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 86¢ $50 24h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 87¢ $50 24h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova SELL Emma Raducanu 92¢ $57 2d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Emma Raducanu 80¢ $50 2d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova SELL Kamilla Rakhimova 22¢ $0 2d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova SELL Kamilla Rakhimova 23¢ $56 2d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 20¢ $51 2d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova SELL Amanda Anisimova 54¢ $0 3d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova SELL Amanda Anisimova 51¢ $88 3d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 57¢ $101 3d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova SELL Iva Jovic 37¢ $57 3d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 63¢ $101 3d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova SELL Amanda Anisimova 96¢ $105 5d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 91¢ $100 5d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova SELL Amanda Anisimova 86¢ $50 5d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 85¢ $50 5d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Iva Jovic 88¢ $164 5d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Iva Jovic 87¢ $20 5d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Mattia Bellucci 82¢ $21 6d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Mattia Bellucci 79¢ $20 6d
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu SELL Thijs Boogaard 42¢ $11 6d
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu BUY Thijs Boogaard 36¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records