Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9233…995a crypto 1695 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$234 (-4%) realized −$234 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%795W / 900L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$63
14 days−$1,986
30 days−$1,307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$333
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 240 -7.1% -16.0% 48% 48% -17.0%
≤30d 904 -32.0% -38.4% 35% 35% -41.7%
≤90d 1695 -3.8% -13.0% 47% 47% -14.6%
all 1695 -3.8% -13.0% 47% 47% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 47% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 47% -22.8%
15% -28.9% 46% -30.3%
20% -35.9% 44% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$234
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses795 / 900
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1695 / 1695
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1695 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records