Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:12:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x9236…db6d other 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$696 (+9%) realized +$792 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%28W / 38L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$1,453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$169
7 days+$230
14 days+$230
30 days+$733
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$30
sports 28% +$677
crypto 3% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -6.2% -15.2% 42% 40% -4.2%
≤30d 65 -6.2% -15.1% 43% 42% +2.9%
≤90d 66 -7.6% -16.4% 42% 41% +0.9%
all 66 -7.6% -16.4% 42% 41% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 41% +0.9%
10% -24.4% 41% -8.8%
15% -31.7% 41% -17.6%
20% -38.4% 32% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$54 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$1,453
Realized+$792
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses28 / 38
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions12
Markets (closed)66 / 79
History coverage46d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $444 $384 −$59 (-13%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 55¢ $259 $260 +$1 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $199 $199 +$0 (+0%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 48¢ 44¢ $144 $131 −$13 (-9%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $123 $122 −$1 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-1%)
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Yes 40¢ 34¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 47¢ 34¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $248 +$263 +106%
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $113 −$111 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $483 +$207 +43%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$92 +180%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $48 +$23 +48%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $112 +$122 +109%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $111 +$1 +1%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $244 −$186 -76%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $34 +$21 +61%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $101 +$46 +46%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $180 −$178 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$32 -64%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $47 −$46 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$67 +262%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $51 +$37 +73%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$57 +113%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 9.5 Corners Jun 14 $50 +$21 +41%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $86 +$63 +73%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $222 +$152 +68%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Ché Adams: 1+ goals Jun 14 $158 −$155 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 14 $182 +$304 +167%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $22 +$29 +129%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND G Jun 13 $102 −$74 -72%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $47 −$4 -9%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 −$102 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$27 +105%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $48 −$4 -9%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 −$4 -7%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 12 $175 −$171 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $39 +$102 +262%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 12 $100 −$97 -96%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Memphis Depay: 1+ goals Jun 12 $33 −$33 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $100 52m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $202 57m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $49 1h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $51 1h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $48 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $60 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $50 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $35 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $61 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 45¢ $48 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $51 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $65 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $25 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 36¢ $37 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $102 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $147 23h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $77 23h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $112 23h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $111 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 69¢ $281 35h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals SELL Yes 10¢ $58 36h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $99 38h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $43 38h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals SELL Yes 1¢ $1 38h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,453.09 · official $1,453.13 (match) · 199 history records