Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:17:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x9237…9381 sports 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$400 (-3%) realized −$400 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate51%64W / 62L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$127est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$284
14 days−$222
30 days−$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$593
other 17% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -18.8% -26.5% 31% 31% -34.4%
≤30d 19 -5.5% -14.5% 42% 42% -25.4%
≤90d 71 -14.0% -22.2% 44% 30% -12.8%
all 126 -12.5% -20.9% 51% 33% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 33% -12.5%
10% -28.4% 20% -20.9%
15% -35.3% 13% -28.5%
20% -41.7% 7% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$30 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$400
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses64 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage210d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $171 −$130 -76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $102 −$65 -64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $142 +$100 +71%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $32 +$17 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $234 −$120 -51%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $43 −$34 -80%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $29 −$6 -22%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $45 +$25 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $52 −$21 -40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $80 −$34 -42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $42 +$23 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $23 −$2 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $14 +$4 +28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $43 +$23 +54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $39 +$21 +53%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $75 +$25 +34%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $44 −$9 -22%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 20 $42 −$13 -30%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $69 −$68 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $86 −$14 -16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $54 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $174 −$168 -96%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $69 −$59 -86%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $102 +$38 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $24 −$23 -99%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $45 +$16 +36%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $254 −$206 -81%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $104 +$22 +22%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $75 −$33 -44%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $69 +$41 +59%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $74 +$3 +4%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $59 +$21 +36%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $63 −$20 -32%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $75 −$44 -58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 13 $107 +$20 +19%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $134 −$16 -12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $216 +$13 +6%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $161 −$95 -59%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $46 +$4 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 11 $191 +$8 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $222 −$30 -14%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $396 +$57 +14%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $68 −$16 -23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $121 −$19 -16%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $311 +$54 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $862 −$27 -3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana G May 10 $91 +$9 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 19¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $171 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 3¢ $4 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 33¢ $51 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 32¢ $33 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 48¢ $51 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 97¢ $39 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 97¢ $19 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 97¢ $184 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $142 35h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $49 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 65¢ $32 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 23¢ $17 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 23¢ $16 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $84 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $79 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 34¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $151 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL BetBoom Team 4¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL BetBoom Team 4¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 65¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 46¢ $23 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $43 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $40 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $29 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 99¢ $69 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 8¢ $19 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 8¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 8¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 445 history records