Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
92 0x9238…b73e world 293 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$88,898 (+240%) realized +$5,895 · open +$348
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate61%106W / 69L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day157.5pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$17,455now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$594
7 days+$1,205
14 days+$4,719
30 days+$5,895
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$6,495
finance 10% +$202
sports 7% −$211
other 5% −$183
politics 3% −$40
crypto 1% −$18
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +4.9% -5.1% 57% 48% +7.6%
≤30d 175 +20.2% +8.7% 61% 51% +18.8%
≤90d 175 +20.2% +8.7% 61% 51% +18.8%
all 175 +20.2% +8.7% 61% 51% +18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover157.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.7% 51% +18.8%
10% ← realistic here -1.7% 38% +7.4%
15% -11.2% 29% -3.0%
20% -19.9% 25% -12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +36% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$24 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.64 per $1 lost it wins $4.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$17,455
Realized+$5,895
Unrealized+$348
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses106 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions130
Markets (closed)175 / 293
History coverage21d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day157.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 130 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 68¢ 98¢ $2,293 $3,298 +$1,005 (+44%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $2,700 $2,771 +$72 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 77¢ 80¢ $1,015 $1,064 +$48 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 76¢ 87¢ $451 $514 +$63 (+14%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $467 $479 +$12 (+3%)
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? No 58¢ 84¢ $296 $426 +$130 (+44%)
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $388 $417 +$28 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 68¢ $372 $384 +$11 (+3%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $377 $382 +$5 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 74¢ 95¢ $297 $380 +$83 (+28%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $419 $338 −$81 (-19%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 44¢ $290 $337 +$47 (+16%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 76¢ 82¢ $291 $312 +$21 (+7%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 76¢ 80¢ $269 $280 +$11 (+4%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 82¢ 87¢ $246 $261 +$15 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 74¢ 97¢ $185 $242 +$57 (+31%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 53¢ 80¢ $159 $239 +$80 (+50%)
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $212 $203 −$9 (-4%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Yes 29¢ 12¢ $443 $182 −$261 (-59%)
Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31? Yes 20¢ 32¢ $110 $179 +$69 (+63%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $165 $177 +$12 (+7%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $179 $167 −$12 (-7%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 49¢ 42¢ $173 $145 −$27 (-16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 50¢ 56¢ $125 $141 +$16 (+13%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 37¢ $143 $129 −$13 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $202 +$38 +19%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $21 −$2 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $68 +$14 +21%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $113 −$113 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $40 −$16 -39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$4 -25%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $18 +$19 +108%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $27 +$145 +533%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $95 +$233 +244%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $17 +$3 +18%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $26 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 14 $125 +$148 +119%
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 14 $14 −$5 -37%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $148 +$23 +15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $18 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 14 $169 +$15 +9%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $57 +$33 +59%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 13 $446 +$180 +40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $32 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $78 +$42 +54%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $248 +$48 +19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $79 −$43 -55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $131 −$1 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $39 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $89 −$46 -52%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 13 $206 +$43 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $37 +$13 +36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $53 +$9 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $36 −$18 -49%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $58 +$6 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $157 +$36 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $35 +$15 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $16 +$10 +60%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $29 +$26 +91%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $283 +$221 +78%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $124 +$17 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $232 −$43 -19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $107 +$58 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 4m
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $7 10m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 10m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $50 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $6 16m
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $9 16m
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $3 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,454.70 · official $17,459.47 (match) · 3500 history records